Versailles vs Valenciennes Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Versailles 1-0 Valenciennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Versailles, 25% draw, 24% Valenciennes — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Versailles at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Versailles vs Valenciennes
Versailles
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
- D0-0Quevilly19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Orleans12 September 2026
- L0-3Cannes5 September 2026
Valenciennes
- W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026
- L2-3away to La Roche VF19 September 2026
- L1-2Fleury 9112 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rouen3 September 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for Versailles had three goals or more.
- Valenciennes scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Valenciennes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Valenciennes.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Versailles vs Valenciennes
- 3 October 2026Versailles 1–0 ValenciennesLigue 3
- 10 April 2026Valenciennes 1–0 VersaillesLigue 3
- 7 November 2025Versailles 1–1 ValenciennesLigue 3
- 28 February 2025Valenciennes 0–0 VersaillesLigue 3
- 26 September 2024Versailles 1–1 ValenciennesLigue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.