La Roche VF vs Aubagne Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: La Roche VF 3-1 Aubagne.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% La Roche VF, 27% draw, 20% Aubagne — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts La Roche VF at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into La Roche VF vs Aubagne
La Roche VF
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
- W3-2Valenciennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Villefranche12 September 2026
- D1-1Quevilly5 September 2026
Aubagne
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rouen19 September 2026
- L1-2Concarneau12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gobelins5 September 2026
What these results say
- La Roche VF went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- La Roche VF scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- La Roche VF conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aubagne failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aubagne conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 21 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: La Roche VF vs Aubagne
- 3 October 2026La Roche VF 3–1 AubagneLigue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.