Concarneau vs Gobelins Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Concarneau 2-1 Gobelins.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Concarneau, 31% draw, 24% Gobelins — fair odds of 2.22, 3.23 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Concarneau at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Concarneau vs Gobelins
Concarneau
- D1-1away to Bourg-en-bresse 0126 September 2026
- W2-0Caen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aubagne12 September 2026
- D2-2Thionville Lusitanos5 September 2026
Gobelins
- W1-0Bastia26 September 2026
- D1-1Bourg-en-bresse 0119 September 2026
- L0-2away to Caen12 September 2026
- D0-0Aubagne5 September 2026
What these results say
- Concarneau went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Concarneau scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Concarneau conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Gobelins had two goals or fewer.
- Gobelins failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Concarneau vs Gobelins
- 3 October 2026Concarneau 2–1 GobelinsLigue 3
- 30 April 2026Concarneau 0–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 12 December 2025Gobelins 0–0 ConcarneauLigue 3
- 16 May 2025Gobelins 2–1 ConcarneauLigue 3
- 16 August 2024Concarneau 2–0 GobelinsLigue 3
- 14 April 2023Concarneau 3–0 GobelinsLigue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.