Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 1-4 Instituto Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Independiente, 32% draw, 30% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
Line-ups
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 2F. CalderónD
- 39R. MartinoD
- 16M. PerezM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 8M. MezaM
- 7S. MontielF
- 9I. MoralesF
- 19M. AbaldoF
- 32D. MartínezM
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 24J. PalaisM
- 30Tomás ParmoM
- 36S. ValdezD
- 10L. CabralM
- 1J. BlázquezG
- 5N. BanegasD
- 6E. ÁvilaF
- 29M. LedesmaG
- 22A. MassaccesiD
- 26L. MosevichD
- 30J. GalvánD
- 44G. CeratoM
- 55G. AbregúM
- 15M. GallardoM
- 3D. SosaM
- 21J. LázaroF
- 17M. TisseraF
- 10A. LunaF
- 2H. De La FuenteD
- 11M. FonsecaF
- 32A. BravoD
- 23J. MeliD
- 13I. MéndezM
- 73Lucas OliveraD
- 35E. SittaroG
- 9F. SuárezF
- 14W. VieraM
Form going into Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
Instituto Cordoba
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Independiente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 18 |
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba
- 2 October 2026Independiente 1–4 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 March 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 August 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 February 2025Independiente 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 July 2024Instituto Cordoba 3–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2024Instituto Cordoba 0–2 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Independiente and Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Instituto Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- A. Luna73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.