Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shelbourne 5-1 Sligo Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Shelbourne, 28% draw, 20% Sligo Rovers — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19E. BeachG
- 16O. CaseyD
- 17D. KellyD
- 4K. LedwidgeD
- 25M. MbengM
- 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
- 23K. McInroyM
- 18James Barry NorrisM
- 22S. MooreF
- 11M. OdubekoF
- 27E. CaffreyF
- 15S. BoneD
- 9S. BoydF
- 14A. CooteM
- 36W. JarvisM
- 10J. MartinF
- 44Daniel RingF
- 55James RocheD
- 24M. UntergrabnerD
- 31C. WalshG
- 1Liam John HughesG
- 51Aidan GabbidonD
- 52G. McElroyD
- 16C. McHughD
- 3Sean StewartD
- 6L. YoungM
- 50Ruben GillespieM
- 10A. MeekisonM
- 14J. McManusM
- 7J. ShorrockM
- 41K. WooleryF
- 15O. DenhamD
- 11C. KavanaghF
- 71D. PattonM
- 9L. PearceF
- 4S. QuirkM
- 77Kevin ZefiF
- 48Ross Ruane-DaltonM
- 61Conor CannonD
- 60Charlie McgarveyG
Form going into Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
- D1-1away to Galway United25 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dundalk18 September 2026
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
Sligo Rovers
- L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026
- L1-3Galway United14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bohemians28 August 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Shelbourne failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shelbourne scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sligo Rovers did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sligo Rovers conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sligo Rovers failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 59 | -34 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
- 27 June 2026Sligo Rovers 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 8 May 2026Shelbourne 0–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 21 March 2026Sligo Rovers 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
- 17 October 2025Shelbourne 3–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 2 August 2025Sligo Rovers 0–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 23 May 2025Shelbourne 3–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- J. Martin82
- D. Kelly73
Sligo Rovers
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.