Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Aldosivi 1-3 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 34% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aldosivi at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23I. ChiccoG
- 4R. GonzálezD
- 2L. SigaliD
- 33N. ZalazarD
- 13B. CufréD
- 10N. GaitánM
- 5N. LinaresM
- 19L. CastroM
- 11B. PalavecinoM
- 8M. GarcíaM
- 9N. CorderoF
- 80L. ChávezM
- 24F. AnsoF
- 25N. BreitenbruchD
- 41Kevin BáezG
- 16B. DadÃnF
- 27T. FernándezF
- 21M. GodoyF
- 7N. GuzmánF
- 17F. LaurelliD
- 12T. AyalaG
- 20U. GiménezD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuárezD
- 23E. GiménezM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
- 10Jhon RenteríaF
- 27J. MarabelF
- 21J. MavillaF
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 33G. DíazM
- 5M. GarcíaM
- 11G. GonzálezF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 7P. MagnínF
- 17A. NadruzM
- 77N. PasquiniD
Form going into Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
- L0-1away to Huracan4 October 2026
- W1-0Atletico Tucuman21 September 2026
- L3-4away to Independiente Rivadavia12 September 2026
- W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
Sarmiento Junin
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
What these results say
- Aldosivi scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aldosivi conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aldosivi | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 8 |
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
- 22 March 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 September 2025Sarmiento Junin 2–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 March 2025Aldosivi 2–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 September 2022Aldosivi 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 October 2021Sarmiento Junin 3–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 March 2018Sarmiento Junin 1–0 AldosiviPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel144
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.