9 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata
Referee: Pablo Dovalo, Argentina
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 Atletico Tucuman.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Gimnasia La Plata, 29% draw, 24% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia La Plata0%Draw4%Atletico Tucuman96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ignacio Fernández
9'
16'
Clever Domingo Ferreira Ñamandu
45'
🔁Iván Tesuriout: Gabriel Compagnucci
Rodrigo Agustín Colazo
60'
60'
Luis Ingolotti
61'
🔁Nicolás Laméndolaout: Ezequiel Ham
61'
🔁Ignacio Galvanout: Juan Infante
🔁Maximiliano Zalazarout: Franco Ramón Torres
65'
🔁Bautista Barros Schelottoout: Alexis Steimbach
65'
70'
Julián Fernández
🔁Lucas Jansonout: Juan Pérez
73'
🔁Rodrigo Agustín Colazoout: Marcelo Torres
73'
81'
Franco Nicola
83'
⚽Lautaro Godoyassist: Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez
🔁Matías Mellusoout: Mariano Ojeda
88'
90+1'
🔁Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguezout: Pedro Alexis Canelo
90+1'
🔁Franco Nicolaout: Maximiliano Villa
•Franco Ramón Torres
90+3'
⚽Marcelo Torres (pen)
90+5'

Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman

61%Possession39%
26Shots8
6On target2
10Corners4
1.82xG0.31

Goals against chances

Gimnasia La Plata1 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Tucuman1 from 0.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia La Plata 4-4-2
  • 23N. InsfránG
  • 31B. Barros SchelottoD
  • 13G. ContiD
  • 21E. MartínezD
  • 22M. MellusoD
  • 9M. ZalazarM
  • 5I. MiramónM
  • 8I. FernándezM
  • 17L. JansonM
  • 19A. ColazoF
  • 29A. AuzmendiF
Substitutes
  • 26F. TorresF
  • 18M. SeoaneM
  • 25A. SteimbachM
  • 35J. CortazzoD
  • 15H. CastilloG
  • 10N. SchelottoM
  • 4R. GiampaoliD
  • 16A. MaxM
  • 43M. OjedaD
Coach: A. Pereyra
Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1
  • 1L. IngolottiG
  • 24L. Di PlácidoD
  • 26C. FerreiraD
  • 36Luciano VallejoD
  • 21I. GalvánD
  • 5J. FernándezM
  • 11R. TesuriM
  • 31L. GodoyM
  • 10F. NicolaM
  • 23N. LaméndolaM
  • 18R. Ruíz RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 34Mauro CarrizoM
  • 28G. CompagnucciD
  • 25T. DursoG
  • 6G. FerrariD
  • 27R. GranilloF
  • 8E. HamM
  • 32J. InfanteD
  • 22F. PimientaF
  • 17J. RodríguezD
Coach: J. Falcioni

Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman

Gimnasia La Plata

  • D1-1away to Independiente Rivadavia3 October 2026
  • D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
  • W2-1Tigre5 September 2026

Atletico Tucuman

  • L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
  • L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Tucuman conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Tucuman failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atletico Tucuman scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Gimnasia La Plata125431717019
10Atletico Tucuman123541010014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman

  • 21 March 2026Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 September 2025Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 February 2025Atletico Tucuman 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 November 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 23 May 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataCopa Argentina
  • 7 April 2024Atletico Tucuman 3–2 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Gimnasia La Plata vs Atletico Tucuman record →

Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Atletico Tucuman

Gimnasia La Plata

GoalsAssists

  • M. Torres92
  • A. Auzmendi73

Atletico Tucuman

GoalsAssists

  • L. Díaz71

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.