9 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Referee: Richard Sundell, Sweden
Full time1 – 0

Final score: IFK Goteborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% IFK Goteborg, 26% draw, 38% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vasteras SK FK at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IFK Goteborg95%Draw5%Vasteras SK FK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Bonaventure Lendambi
⚽Noah Tolfassist: oliver mansson
9'
63'
jonathan karlsson
66'
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: karl gunnarsson
66'
🔁Bonaventure Lendambiout: Abdelrahman Saidi
oliver mansson
70'
🔁Nino Žugeljout: Kolbeinn Thordarson
72'
87'
🔁jens magnussonout: Jonathan Ring
87'
🔁jonathan karlssonout: Marcus Baggesen
90+1'
🔁Jack Tagessonout: Frédéric Nsabiyumva
90+6'
Elis Jager
90+9'
karl gunnarsson
90+9'
Abdelrahman Saidi
⚽Sam Larsson (pen)
90+9'

Match stats — IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

46%Possession54%
3Shots12
1On target2
2Corners6
0.95xG0.59

Goals against chances

IFK Goteborg1 from 0.95 xGabout what the chances were worth
Vasteras SK FK0 from 0.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. AnderssonG
  • 4K. AckermannD
  • 5J. BagerD
  • 26E. FasthD
  • 22Noah TolfD
  • 24O. ManssonM
  • 15D. KruseM
  • 11N. ŽugeljM
  • 8S. LarssonM
  • 14T. HeintzM
  • 7Alexander Illum SimmelhackF
Substitutes
  • 25E. BishesariG
  • 27A. BorénF
  • 9M. FengerF
  • 35N. LundenM
  • 21L. RadakovicM
  • 28I. SeiduD
  • 23K. ÞórðarsonM
  • 30T. CoimbraF
  • 20G. ErsoyD
Coach: Joachim Björklund
Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 17A. TaonsaF
Substitutes
  • 7A. BoudahF
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 5K. GunnarssonM
  • 18F. NsabiyumvaD
  • 10J. RingF
  • 21V. WernerssonD
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
  • 3M. BaggesenD
Coach: Alexander Rubin

Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

IFK Goteborg

  • W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
  • W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
  • W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026

Vasteras SK FK

  • W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
  • W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
  • L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026

What these results say

  • IFK Goteborg won every one of these 4 matches.
  • IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Vasteras SK FK won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Vasteras SK FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Vasteras SK FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8IFK Goteborg2310583241-935
7Vasteras SK FK2310583436-235

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

  • 31 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 4–5 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 26 September 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 21 July 2024IFK Goteborg 1–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 22 February 2020IFK Goteborg 2–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen

Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK

IFK Goteborg

GoalsAssists

  • S. Larsson72
  • T. Heintz65

Vasteras SK FK

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ladefoged92
  • A. Taonsa80

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.