10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Gais vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Referee: Victor Wolf, Sweden
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Gais 0-1 Sirius.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Gais, 27% draw, 33% Sirius — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gais at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gais0%Draw5%Sirius95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

56'
🔁Zalán Vancsaout: Joakim Persson
🔁Nikola·Vasicout: Samuel Salter
62'
🔁Simon Jørgensenout: Christos Gravius
63'
72'
🔁Ake Anderssonout: N. Jönsson
🔁Melvin Anderssonout: Oscar Pettersson
72'
72'
🔁Victor Svenssonout: Adam Vikman
🔁Joackim Abergout: Jonas Lindberg
73'
August Wangberg
77'
78'
⚽Isak Bjerkeboassist: Joakim Persson
🔁Matteo de Brienneout: Robin Wendin Thomasson
85'
88'
🔁Isak Bjerkeboout: Mohamed Soumah
Jonas Lindberg
90+2'

Match stats — Gais vs Sirius

55%Possession45%
16Shots10
1On target3
8Corners8
1.25xG1.86

Goals against chances

Gais0 from 1.25 xGless than the chances were worth
Sirius1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gais 4-3-3
  • 1M. KrasniqiG
  • 6A. WängbergD
  • 4O. ÅgrenD
  • 24F. BeckmanD
  • 2M. de BrienneD
  • 10H. SletsjøeM
  • 7J. ÅbergM
  • 14S. JørgensenM
  • 16M. AnderssonF
  • 21N. VasićF
  • 11R. NiklassonF
Substitutes
  • 5R. ThomassonD
  • 22A. CardaklijaD
  • 12R. FrejD
  • 31C. GraviusM
  • 28L. HedlundF
  • 33A. HermansenG
  • 25Jonas LindbergM
  • 32O. PetterssonF
  • 20S. SalterF
Coach: F. Holmberg
Sirius 4-3-3
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 30Z. VancsaF
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 35E. EldD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 8Matthias NarteyM
  • 7J. PerssonF
  • 2Mohamed SoumahD
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 25O. AdinduF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark

Form going into Gais vs Sirius

Gais

  • W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
  • D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
  • W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026

Sirius

  • W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
  • L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Gais kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sirius won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sirius scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Sirius had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Gais238692821+730
1Sirius2317335328+2554

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gais vs Sirius

  • 10 October 2026Gais 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 24 May 2026Sirius 2–1 GaisAllsvenskan
  • 14 September 2025Sirius 3–0 GaisAllsvenskan
  • 24 May 2025Gais 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 10 November 2024Gais 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 13 July 2024Sirius 3–1 GaisAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Gais and Sirius

Gais

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ure152
  • I. Bjerkebo146

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.