Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 0-2 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Union Santa Fe, 26% draw, 31% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21M. MansillaG
- 27T. RubioD
- 4M. RochaD
- 26J. LudueñaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 10V. MalcorraM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 43E. RamírezF
- 36M. AimarD
- 31M. AguirreF
- 38V. J. CerrudoF
- 22B. CuelloM
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 33I. IslaD
- 40L. MeuliG
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 34Mateo PeresuttiM
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernándezD
- 21D. MartínezD
- 30D. DomínguezD
- 15S. SosaM
- 8C. PérezM
- 26J. LuccoM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 24J. GutiérrezM
- 9L. FernándezF
- 40Maximo RodriguezM
- 7T. PérezF
- 16A. PortilloM
- 22M. PorcelM
- 11Tiziano PerrotaF
- 20N. PalavecinoM
- 5J. LópezM
- 17A. HauschF
- 6E. BurdinD
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
- W3-0San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
- Union Santa Fe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 10 October 2026Union Santa Fe 0–2 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 March 2026Defensa Y Justicia 2–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 October 2025Union Santa Fe 3–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 April 2025Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 December 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 March 2024Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona141
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.