Tigre vs Banfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 1-2 Banfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Tigre, 30% draw, 24% Banfield — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Banfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. ZenobioG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 2J. LasoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 24F. ÁlvarezD
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 27S. GonzálezM
- 5B. LeyesM
- 22S. LópezM
- 30J. DóminaF
- 29I. RussoF
- 8M. GarayM
- 18M. FernándezF
- 47A. LezcanoM
- 40L. MinnitiD
- 26L. MoralesG
- 19A. OviedoF
- 50I. PeluffoF
- 23G. RequenaD
- 11T. SerragoM
- 50D. RodríguezG
- 4J. AlfaroD
- 2S. DanieleD
- 6N. MerianoD
- 27I. AbrahamD
- 5Santiago EsquivelM
- 20T. AdoryánM
- 18Federico MedinaM
- 7Lisandro PiñeroM
- 40D. ZalazarM
- 9A. BalboaF
- 30F. AnselmoF
- 19L. CanoD
- 28M. HernándezF
- 24S. LópezM
- 37R. MalancaD
- 13Brandon OviedoD
- 35I. PaisM
- 3N. PazD
- 77T. RodríguezF
Form going into Tigre vs Banfield
Tigre
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Velez Sarsfield21 September 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
Banfield
- D1-1Rosario Central6 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia La Plata19 September 2026
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
What these results say
- Tigre did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Tigre conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Tigre scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Banfield did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Banfield scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Banfield conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tigre | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Banfield | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Banfield
- 10 October 2026Tigre 1–2 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 March 2026Banfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 August 2025Banfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 June 2025Tigre 2–0 BanfieldCopa Argentina
- 25 February 2025Tigre 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 November 2024Banfield 0–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Banfield
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Banfield
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.