9 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Presidente Peron, Cordoba
Referee: Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Instituto Cordoba 2-2 Boca Juniors.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Instituto Cordoba, 31% draw, 34% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Instituto Cordoba at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Instituto Cordoba3%Draw94%Boca Juniors3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fernando Alarcon
14'
Gustavo Abregú
22'
23'
⚽Enner Valencia
🔁Giuliano Ceratoout: Hernán De La Fuente
45'
⚽Jonathan Galvánassist: Leonel Mosevich
48'
53'
Williams Alarcón
55'
🔁Milton Delgadoout: Leandro Paredes
55'
🔁Enner Valenciaout: Miguel Merentiel
56'
⚽Miguel Merentielassist: Lautaro Blanco
🔁Matías Tisseraout: Facundo Ezquel Suarez
71'
🔁Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaroout: Jhon Córdoba
71'
71'
🔁Leandro Paredesout: Santiago Ascacibar
71'
🔁Sebastián Villaout: Ángel Romero
76'
Malcon Braida
79'
Santiago Ascacibar
Alex Luna
79'
Fernando Alarcon
80'
Matías Gallardo
85'
🔁Alex Lunaout: Lucas Martín Sanseviero Pérez
88'
🔁Matías Gallardoout: Juan Ignacio Méndez
88'

Match stats — Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors

31%Possession69%
12Shots11
4On target3
4Corners2
0.75xG1.74

Goals against chances

Instituto Cordoba2 from 0.75 xGmore than the chances were worth
Boca Juniors2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Instituto Cordoba 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. LedesmaG
  • 30J. GalvánD
  • 26L. MosevichD
  • 6F. AlarcónD
  • 44G. CeratoM
  • 55G. AbregúM
  • 15M. GallardoM
  • 3D. SosaM
  • 21J. LázaroM
  • 10A. LunaM
  • 17M. TisseraF
Substitutes
  • 8J. AcevedoM
  • 32A. BravoD
  • 20J. CórdobaM
  • 2H. De La FuenteD
  • 11M. FonsecaF
  • 7N. GuerraF
  • 22A. MassaccesiD
  • 23J. MeliD
  • 13I. MéndezM
Coach: Diego Flores
Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. MonteroG
  • 27M. BraidaD
  • 2L. Di LolloD
  • 26Marco PellegrinoD
  • 3L. BlancoD
  • 15W. AlarcónM
  • 18M. DelgadoM
  • 19L. FloresM
  • 7C. PalaciosM
  • 22S. VillaM
  • 13E. ValenciaF
Substitutes
  • 6R. BattagliaM
  • 25S. AscacíbarM
  • 12L. BreyG
  • 32A. CostaD
  • 4N. FigalD
  • 9M. GiménezF
  • 24D. GorositoD
  • 42F. HerreraD
  • 16M. MerentielF
Coach: R. Arruabarrena

Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors

Instituto Cordoba

  • W4-1away to Independiente2 October 2026
  • W3-1Talleres Cordoba20 September 2026
  • W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026

Boca Juniors

  • W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
  • W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
  • W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Instituto Cordoba scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Instituto Cordoba conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Instituto Cordoba had three goals or more.
  • Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Boca Juniors won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Instituto Cordoba128221910+926
3Boca Juniors125611913+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors

  • 22 March 2026Boca Juniors 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 July 2024Instituto Cordoba 0–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 March 2023Boca Juniors 2–3 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Instituto Cordoba and Boca Juniors

Instituto Cordoba

GoalsAssists

  • A. Luna73

Boca Juniors

GoalsAssists

  • M. Merentiel82

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.