Velez Sarsfield vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Platense.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Velez Sarsfield, 29% draw, 21% Platense — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Platense
Line-ups
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveorD
- 16L. MagallánD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 39T. AguirreM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 37J. PolicellaM
- 77R. MartínezF
- 35M. AriasF
- 5C. BaezaM
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 18S. EscobarD
- 48Luca FelerM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 21Jano GordonD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 30L. PiolaF
- 30J. CozzaniG
- 4A. LagosD
- 34M. MendiaD
- 31V. CuestaD
- 3T. SilvaD
- 15M. AmarfilM
- 24M. BarriosM
- 7G. MaineroM
- 18B. MerliniM
- 43N. RetamarM
- 79B. SepúlvedaF
- 5I. GómezM
- 16G. TogniF
- 10F. ZapiolaM
- 22N. SumavilG
- 17Felipe BussioM
- 23L. HerediaM
- 33J. GautoF
- 99G. LencinaF
- 11N. LópezF
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Platense
Velez Sarsfield
- W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
Platense
- L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 13 | Platense | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Platense
- 5 October 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 March 2026Platense 0–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 July 2025Platense 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 January 2025Velez Sarsfield 0–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 July 2024Platense 0–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 March 2023Velez Sarsfield 1–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Platense
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez101
Platense
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.