5 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Cyprus vs Latvia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cyprus 2-1 Latvia.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Cyprus, 32% draw, 26% Latvia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cyprus at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cyprus4%Draw94%Latvia2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Raivis Jurkovskis
45'
🔁Lukass Vapneout: Kristers Cudars
45'
🔁Markuss Strodsout: danila patijcuks
57'
⚽Eduards Daskevicsassist: Vladislavs Gutkovskis
🔁Andronikos Kakoullisout: Giannis Kosti
58'
🔁Loizos Loizouout: Stavros Georgiou
58'
60'
🔁Vladislavs Gutkovskisout: Roberts Uldriķis
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: A. Neophytou
67'
🔁Kostakis Artymatasout: Charalampos Kyriakou
67'
⚽Giannis Kosti
70'
74'
🔁Eduards Daskevicsout: Albert aleksanjan
76'
danila patijcuks
Leonidas·Konomis
85'
85'
Andrejs Cigaņiks
88'
🔁Dmitrijs Zelenkovsout: Aleksejs Saveljevs
🔁Grigoris Kastanosout: Nicholas Tsaroulla
90+1'
⚽Marcus Edwardsassist: Nicholas Tsaroulla
90+4'
Marcus Edwards
90+5'

Match stats — Cyprus vs Latvia

62%Possession38%
19Shots12
7On target1
7Corners3

Line-ups

Cyprus 4-2-3-1
  • 1FabianoG
  • 15L. KonomisD
  • 4H. KyprianouD
  • 3N. PanagiotouD
  • 14G. MalekkidesD
  • 18K. ArtymatasM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 23M. EdwardsM
  • 10L. LoizouM
  • 11A. KakoullisM
  • 9I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 17A. ChristouD
  • 12J. MallG
  • 8C. KyriakouM
  • 7A. NeophytouF
  • 22A. ParaskevasG
  • 13I. KostiM
  • 19S. GeorgiouF
  • 16P. AndreouM
  • 5K. SotiriouD
Coach: A. Mantzios
Latvia 5-4-1
  • 23R. MatrevicsG
  • 13R. JurkovskisD
  • 21D. MeļņiksD
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 2D. BalodisD
  • 14A. CigaņiksD
  • 7E. DašķevičsM
  • 10L. VapneM
  • 15D. ZelenkovsM
  • 17M. StrodsM
  • 9V. GutkovskisF
Substitutes
  • 5O. RubenisF
  • 1N. PuriņšG
  • 6D. PatijčuksM
  • 12F. OrolsG
  • 8E. EmsisM
  • 18A. AleksanjanM
  • 20R. UldriķisF
  • 3G. ŽaleikoM
  • 19M. ToņiševsD
Coach: P. Nicolato

Form going into Cyprus vs Latvia

Cyprus

  • W2-0Armenia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Latvia28 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026

Latvia

  • L1-2Montenegro2 October 2026
  • D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Cyprus421153+27
4Latvia401326-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cyprus vs Latvia

  • 5 October 2026Cyprus 2–1 LatviaUEFA Nations League
  • 28 September 2026Latvia 0–0 CyprusUEFA Nations League
  • 21 March 2024Cyprus 1–1 LatviaFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.