Romania vs Sweden UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Romania 0-1 Sweden.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Romania, 28% draw, 38% Sweden — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sweden at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Romania vs Sweden
Line-ups
- 12O. HindrichG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 4A. CoubișD
- 3M. IlieD
- 11N. BancuD
- 22V. DragomirM
- 18R. MarinM
- 20D. ManM
- 10N. StanciuM
- 7D. OlaruM
- 9F. TănaseF
- 8A. CicâldăuM
- 13V. MihăilăF
- 14I. HagiM
- 5L. EissatD
- 19C. CîrjanM
- 16V. CojocaruG
- 21O. MoruțanF
- 15R. OpruțD
- 1I. RaduG
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 2F. BeijmoD
- 4E. SmithD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 21A. BernhardssonM
- 7L. BergvallM
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 22B. ZeneliF
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 11W. SwedbergF
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 14E. SkoglundD
- 13K. SemaM
- 20H. LarssonM
- 15V. ErikssonD
- 23M. EllborgG
- 18S. DahlD
Form going into Romania vs Sweden
Romania
- L0-6away to Poland2 October 2026
- L2-4Bosnia & Herzegovina28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026
Sweden
- D1-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina2 October 2026
- W3-1Poland28 September 2026
- W2-1Romania25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Romania vs Sweden
- 25 September 2026Sweden 2–1 RomaniaUEFA Nations League
- 15 November 2019Romania 0–2 SwedenEuro Championship
- 23 March 2019Sweden 2–1 RomaniaEuro Championship
- 27 March 2018Romania 1–0 SwedenFriendlies
Leading scorers: Romania and Sweden
Romania
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The result against the call
Sweden won 1–0 at Romania. The model had made a win for Sweden its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1-2. The goal: Viktor Gyökeres 13' for Sweden.