5 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Ukraine vs Hungary UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava
Referee: Igor Pajac
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Ukraine 1-2 Hungary.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Ukraine, 34% draw, 33% Hungary — fair odds of 3.03, 2.94 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 34% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ukraine0%Draw3%Hungary97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Egor Nazaryna
20'
52'
⚽Milan Tóthassist: Milan Vitális
55'
Dániel Lukács
🔁Matviy Ponomarenkoout: Roman Yaremchuk
60'
🔁Vladyslav Veletenout: Maksym Khlan
60'
🔁Igor Krasnopirout: Vladyslav Vanat
60'
61'
🔁Dániel Lukácsout: Tamás Szűcs
62'
🔁Alex Tóthout: Gabor Jurek
🔁Oleg Ocheretkoout: Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
70'
72'
🔁András Schäferout: Rajmund Tóth
72'
🔁Milan Tóthout: Jozsef Szalai
78'
Rajmund Tóth
⚽Roman Yaremchukassist: Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
83'
85'
⚽Mark Csingerassist: Rajmund Tóth
🔁Egor Nazarynaout: Ivan Varfolomeev
86'
87'
🔁Dominik Szoboszlaiout: Áron Csongvai

Match stats — Ukraine vs Hungary

52%Possession48%
17Shots10
2On target4
5Corners4

Line-ups

Ukraine 3-4-1-2
  • 12A. TrubinG
  • 13I. ZabarnyiD
  • 3E. SarapiyD
  • 4T. MykhavkoD
  • 2I. KrupskyiM
  • 19E. NazarynaM
  • 18O. OcheretkoM
  • 21V. VeletenM
  • 15V. TsygankovM
  • 10M. PonomarenkoF
  • 22I. KrasnopirF
Substitutes
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 14O. DrambaevD
  • 20M. KhlanM
  • 8O. NazarenkoM
  • 17O. PikhalyonokM
  • 23D. RiznykG
  • 11V. VanatF
  • 16I. VarfolomeevM
Coach: Andrea Maldera
Hungary 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. TóthG
  • 2A. OsváthD
  • 6W. OrbánD
  • 3M. CsingerD
  • 18Z. NagyD
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 10D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 16D. LukacsM
  • 8M. VitálisM
  • 21A. TóthM
  • 20M. TóthF
Substitutes
  • 4B. VárkonyiD
  • 9D. BárányF
  • 14B. BollaD
  • 19R.TóthM
  • 7Tamás SzücsM
  • 11J. SzalaiF
  • 22Á. PécsiG
  • 5A. MarkgráfD
  • 17G. JurekF
Coach: M. Rossi

Form going into Ukraine vs Hungary

Ukraine

  • L0-3Northern Ireland2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026

Hungary

  • W1-0Georgia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
  • L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ukraine411225-34
2Hungary421132+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ukraine vs Hungary

  • 5 October 2026Ukraine 1–2 HungaryUEFA Nations League
  • 25 September 2026Hungary 0–1 UkraineUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.