Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Bosnia & Herzegovina, 29% draw, 42% Poland — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Poland at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
Line-ups
- 22M. ZlomislićG
- 7Z. SmajlovićD
- 18N. KatićD
- 4T. MuharemovićD
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 15A. MemićM
- 8A. GigovićM
- 13I. BašićM
- 16Ermin MahmićM
- 10E. DemirovićF
- 23H. TabakovićF
- 9S. BaždarF
- 19J. LukićF
- 1M. JurkasG
- 3A. MalicD
- 17A. HasićM
- 12S. HamzićG
- 11E. BajraktarevicF
- 2N. MujakićD
- 20N. OmerovićF
- 1M. BułkaG
- 2M. CashD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 14J. KiwiorD
- 19P. FrankowskiD
- 16W. NowakM
- 10P. ZielińskiM
- 11K. ŚwiderskiM
- 20S. SzymańskiM
- 21N. ZalewskiM
- 9M. ŻukowskiF
- 12M. KochalskiG
- 7O. PietuszewskiF
- 23K. PotulskiD
- 15T. PuchaczD
- 18M. RegułaM
- 17M. SkóraśF
- 6B. SliszM
- 8K. UrbaÅskiM
- 3P. WiśniewskiD
Form going into Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
- D1-1Sweden2 October 2026
- W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
- D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026
Poland
- W6-0Romania2 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sweden28 September 2026
- D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
- 5 October 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 PolandUEFA Nations League
- 25 September 2026Poland 0–0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
- 14 October 2020Poland 3–0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
- 7 September 2020Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–2 PolandUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Poland
GoalsAssists
- R. Lewandowski30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.