Montenegro vs Armenia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Montenegro 0-0 Armenia.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Montenegro, 28% draw, 26% Armenia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Montenegro at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Montenegro vs Armenia
Line-ups
- 1B. PopovićG
- 2M. RoganovićD
- 4A. ĐurićD
- 15S. SavićD
- 16O. GaševićD
- 8M. JankovićM
- 21A. BulatovićM
- 17Vasilije AdžićM
- 19V. ĐukanovićF
- 9N. KrstovićF
- 20M. OsmajićF
- 10S. JovetićF
- 14J. DrešajD
- 22S. LončarM
- 13I. NikićG
- 12D. PetkovićG
- 3R. RadunovićD
- 6S. RubežićD
- 7M. VešovićD
- 5I. VujačićD
- 12A. BeglaryanG
- 3E. PiloyanD
- 22E. SimonyanD
- 4G. HarutyunyanD
- 21N. TiknizyanD
- 6U. IwuM
- 8K. HovhannisyanM
- 9A. SerobyanM
- 14G. ManvelyanM
- 7N. HovhannisyanM
- 18A. MiranyanF
- 16G. MatinyanG
- 1A. MishievG
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 15K. NalbandyanM
- 5A. PetrosyanD
- 10E. SpertsyanM
- 20D. TerteryanD
- 11N. GrigoryanF
- 23A. EloyanM
Form going into Montenegro vs Armenia
Montenegro
- W2-1away to Latvia2 October 2026
- W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
- W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026
Armenia
- L0-2away to Cyprus2 October 2026
- L2-3Montenegro28 September 2026
- W2-0Latvia25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Montenegro vs Armenia
- 5 October 2026Montenegro 0–0 ArmeniaUEFA Nations League
- 28 September 2026Armenia 2–3 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
- 9 June 2025Montenegro 2–2 ArmeniaFriendlies
- 24 March 2022Armenia 1–0 MontenegroFriendlies
- 10 June 2017Montenegro 4–1 ArmeniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 11 November 2016Armenia 3–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe