France vs Belgium UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: France 4-1 Belgium.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% France, 30% draw, 30% Belgium — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts France at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — France vs Belgium
Line-ups
- 1G. RestesG
- 5J. KoundéD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17M. LacroixD
- 13A. DioufD
- 18M. AklioucheM
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 8M. KonéM
- 7O. DembéléF
- 19E. LepaulF
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 23J. ButezG
- 9R. CherkiM
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 20D. DouéF
- 2P. KaluluD
- 16M. MaignanG
- 11M. OliseM
- 14A. RabiotM
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12M. VandevoordtG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 15N. NgoyD
- 4B. MecheleD
- 18J. SeysD
- 23N. RaskinM
- 6R. LaviaM
- 14D. LukebakioM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 19Diego MoreiraM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 10L. TrossardF
- 3A. TheateD
- 16K. SabbeD
- 13M. PendersG
- 11L. OpendaF
- 1S. LammensG
- 8M. KeitaM
- 7M. GodtsF
- 22M. Fernandez-PardoF
Form going into France vs Belgium
France
- D1-1Italy2 October 2026
- W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
Belgium
- W3-0Türkiye2 October 2026
- L0-1France28 September 2026
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: France vs Belgium
- 5 October 2026France 4–1 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
- 28 September 2026Belgium 0–1 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 14 October 2024Belgium 1–2 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 9 September 2024France 2–0 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
- 1 July 2024France 1–0 BelgiumEuro Championship
- 7 October 2021Belgium 2–3 FranceUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: France and Belgium
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise42
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- D. Lukebakio21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.