5 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Northern Ireland vs Georgia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Windsor Park, Belfast
Referee: Sebastian Gishamer
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Northern Ireland 0-0 Georgia.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Northern Ireland, 34% draw, 29% Georgia — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Northern Ireland at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Northern Ireland3%Draw95%Georgia2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Giorgi Kochorashvili
45'
🔁Giorgi Kochorashviliout: Georgiy Tsitaishvili
🔁Ethan Galbraithout: Brodie Spencer
65'
65'
🔁Zuriko Davitashviliout: Giorgi Chakvetadze
65'
🔁Anzor Mekvabishviliout: Nodar Lominadze
74'
🔁Gizo Mamageishviliout: Irakli Yegoian
🔁Jamie Donleyout: Josh Magennis
74'
🔁Patrick Kellyout: Kieran Morrison
74'
•Ruairi McConville
82'
83'
Nodar Lominadze
⚽Isaac Price (pen)
84'
86'
Irakli Yegoian
86'
🔁Budu Zivzivadzeout: Georges Mikautadze
🔁Tom Atchesonout: Paddy McNair
86'
🔁Isaac Priceout: Callum Marshall
86'
89'
Georgiy Tsitaishvili

Match stats — Northern Ireland vs Georgia

38%Possession62%
15Shots7
5On target2
8Corners4

Line-ups

Northern Ireland 3-4-2-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 4Tom AtchesonD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 22C. BrownD
  • 5T. HumeM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 7E. GalbraithM
  • 3J. DevennyM
  • 16Patrick KellyM
  • 14I. PriceM
  • 10J. DonleyF
Substitutes
  • 12C. HazardG
  • 2T. DevlinM
  • 21J. MagennisF
  • 8C. MarshallF
  • 17P. McNairD
  • 13K. MorrisonM
  • 9C. O’NeillF
  • 23B. Peacock-FarrellG
  • 11P. SmythF
Coach: M. O'Neill
Georgia 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. MamardashviliG
  • 2O. KakabadzeD
  • 20S. SazonovD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4L. LochoshviliD
  • 6G. KochorashviliM
  • 14A. MekvabishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 9Z. DavitashviliM
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaM
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
Substitutes
  • 21G. GaguaF
  • 18I. YegoianM
  • 19G. TsitaishviliF
  • 22G. MikautadzeF
  • 8N. LominadzeM
  • 12S. LobzhanidzeF
  • 17G. KvernadzeF
  • 16S. KharebashviliD
  • 23L. GugeshashviliG
Coach: R. Svanadze

Form going into Northern Ireland vs Georgia

Northern Ireland

  • W3-0away to Ukraine2 October 2026
  • D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026

Georgia

  • L0-1away to Hungary2 October 2026
  • D0-0Ukraine28 September 2026
  • L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Northern Ireland422040+48
4Georgia402202-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Northern Ireland vs Georgia

  • 25 September 2026Georgia 0–1 Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League

The result against the call

Northern Ireland and Georgia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Northern Ireland at 37% and given a draw 34%.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.