Italy vs Türkiye UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Italy 3-1 Türkiye.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Italy, 27% draw, 26% Türkiye — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Italy at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Italy vs Türkiye
Line-ups
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 6A. BastoniD
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 18N. BarellaM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 15I. DoumbiaM
- 21A. VergaraF
- 11G. ScamaccaF
- 17D. MaldiniF
- 7N. CambiaghiF
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 9F. EspositoF
- 20S. EspositoF
- 10N. FagioliM
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 14S. InacioF
- 2M. KayodeD
- 1U. ÇakırG
- 20F. KadıoğluD
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 15O. KabakD
- 14A. BardakcıD
- 13E. ElmalıD
- 5S. ÖzcanM
- 16İ. YüksekM
- 10İ. KahveciM
- 21A. ŞimşirM
- 19Y. AkgünF
- 4E. TopçuD
- 8E. TıknazM
- 23M. ŞengezerG
- 17M. KabasakalM
- 9D. GülF
- 11I. FakiliF
- 22M. EskihellaçD
- 6B. ElmazM
- 3M. DemiralD
Form going into Italy vs Türkiye
Italy
- D1-1away to France2 October 2026
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
Türkiye
- L0-3away to Belgium2 October 2026
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Italy vs Türkiye
- 28 September 2026Türkiye 1–4 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 4 June 2024Italy 0–0 TürkiyeFriendlies
- 29 March 2022Türkiye 2–3 ItalyFriendlies
- 11 June 2021Türkiye 0–3 ItalyEuro Championship
The result against the call
Italy beat Türkiye 3–1. The model had made a win for Italy its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2-1. The goals: Gianluca Scamacca 26' for Italy, Aral Simsir 61' for Türkiye, Riccardo Calafiori 64' for Italy, Pio Esposito 87' for Italy.