Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Mjallby AIF 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mjallby AIF, 28% draw, 27% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mjallby AIF at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35A. LundinG
- 33T. MiettinenD
- 5Abdullah IqbalD
- 24T. PetterssonD
- 14Villiam GranathM
- 7V. GustafsonM
- 22J. GustavssonM
- 25M. NielsenM
- 23Á. SamuelsenF
- 18J. BergströmF
- 10J. KjærF
- 27L. TidstrandM
- 3M. AgnarssonD
- 6M. EnggårdM
- 1S. HansenG
- 26I. HoffmannD
- 29Olle LindbergM
- 4A. NorénD
- 2L. SvanbergD
- 39R. LeanderssonM
- 38M. IgonenG
- 6D. SundgrenD
- 3Nikolai SkusethD
- 2Ahmad FaqaD
- 13M. HamiltonD
- 16S. OhlssonD
- 10N. MilleskogM
- 8B. HusseinM
- 17Arman TaranisM
- 22N. Girmai NetabayF
- 14L. FritzsonF
- 11D. VukojevićF
- 7S. OhlssonD
- 15N. MoroD
- 1W. JakobssonG
- 23R. DzabicM
- 18S. DiataraD
- 20E. BarsoumM
- 28J. HernandezD
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Mjallby AIF
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
Degerfors IF
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mjallby AIF scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Degerfors IF failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 |
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
- 10 October 2026Mjallby AIF 1–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 9 May 2026Degerfors IF 1–4 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 13 September 2025Degerfors IF 0–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 27 April 2025Mjallby AIF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 12 November 2023Degerfors IF 1–2 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 16 April 2023Mjallby AIF 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström90
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.