Rosenborg vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Rosenborg, 25% draw, 23% Sandefjord — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. WahlstedtG
- 22J. SvenssonD
- 4M. CeïdeD
- 21T. NemčíkD
- 19A. PereiraD
- 11N. SahsahM
- 17M. BomholtM
- 10O. SelnæsM
- 6M. KjøløM
- 18Amin ChiakhaF
- 35E. CeïdeF
- 16A. WitryD
- 3T. SolheimD
- 29D. ĎurišF
- 8I. FossumM
- 9D. IslamovićF
- 23M. MampassiD
- 15J. MortensenD
- 7S. NordliM
- 12R. SandbergG
- 30E. HadayaG
- 2M. HellanD
- 13R. HoltenD
- 44X. LambrixD
- 5G. HøjbjergD
- 10E. GigovićM
- 8T. BørkeeietM
- 6S. MørkM
- 7E. PatoulidisF
- 24S. MathisenF
- 27J. DunsbyF
- 19Bendik BerntsenF
- 3V. EgeliD
- 1A. GrønnebergG
- 16H. KrogelienD
- 4F. PedersenD
- 14E. PettersenM
- 31H. B. SkrettebergD
- 37J. VesterM
Form going into Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
Rosenborg
- W3-1away to Kristiansund BK19 September 2026
- W5-3Tromso12 September 2026
- W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
- L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
Sandefjord
- W3-0Start20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026
- D1-1Viking4 September 2026
- D0-0Brann30 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Rosenborg had three goals or more.
- Rosenborg won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sandefjord failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sandefjord scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 34 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord
- 10 October 2026Rosenborg 1–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 18 April 2026Sandefjord 0–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 29 October 2025Rosenborg 1–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 6 July 2025Sandefjord 2–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 29 September 2024Sandefjord 0–1 RosenborgEliteserien
- 1 April 2024Rosenborg 2–0 SandefjordEliteserien
Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Sandefjord
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha143
Sandefjord
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.