10 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion Primera División prediction & result

Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, El Salvador
Referee: Gaston Philippe
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cobresal 1-1 Universidad de Concepcion.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Cobresal, 25% draw, 21% Universidad de Concepcion — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cobresal at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cobresal0%Draw4%Universidad de Concepcion96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Fuentes
41'
Cesar Yanis
44'
🔁Martín Espinozaout: Franco Frias
45'
45'
🔁T. Rocoout: Iam Gonzalez
🔁Matias Alejandro Olguín Luceroout: Alejandro Santander
54'
•Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz
62'
Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz
62'
🔁Leroy Janpol Morales Napaout: Aaron Astudillo
68'
76'
🔁Facundo Materout: Luis Rojas
77'
🔁Cecilio Watermanout: Rogelio Funes
79'
🔁Yerco Oyanedelout: Antonio Diaz
80'
Bryan Ogaz
88'
⚽Luis Rojasassist: Iam Gonzalez
Aaron Astudillo
90'
90'
Luis Rojas
90+5'
🔁Harol Salgadoout: diego sabando
⚽Guillermo Pacheco
90+5'

Match stats — Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

47%Possession53%
23Shots16
8On target3
10Corners5
1.67xG0.77

Goals against chances

Cobresal1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Universidad de Concepcion1 from 0.77 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cobresal 4-2-3-1
  • 36M. OlguinG
  • 23G. PachecoD
  • 20J. TiznadoD
  • 4R. SandovalD
  • 15A. CastilloD
  • 17J. FuentesM
  • 38F. VillagránM
  • 7C. YanisM
  • 39L. MoralesM
  • 11J. BreaM
  • 37Martin EspinozaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. AstudilloD
  • 12J. SantanderG
  • 6E. ValenciaM
  • 13Benjamin ValenzuelaM
  • 3Benjamin VillarroelD
  • 14R. HuertaF
  • 32F. FríasF
  • 43V. CamposD
  • 8S. PinoF
Coach: G. Huerta
Universidad de Concepcion 4-3-3
  • 1J. BrounG
  • 32B. SaezD
  • 17M. GonzálezD
  • 3M. BarbieriD
  • 15Y. OyanedelD
  • 8F. MaterM
  • 16B. OgazM
  • 10J. FuentealbaM
  • 25H. SalgadoF
  • 18C. WatermanF
  • 26T. RocoF
Substitutes
  • 21J. EspejoD
  • 22R. Funes MoriF
  • 7I. GonzálezF
  • 34F. HerreraM
  • 2Páez PáezM
  • 20L. RojasM
  • 29D. SabandoF
  • 11A. DíazF
  • 13J. SanhuezaG
Coach: Cristián Muñoz

Form going into Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

Cobresal

  • W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Deportes Limache7 September 2026
  • W2-0Palestino28 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Deportes La Serena23 August 2026

Universidad de Concepcion

  • L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Palestino6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido2 September 2026
  • W2-1Universidad de Chile30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Cobresal scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cobresal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Cobresal had three goals or more.
  • Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cobresal2474133545-1025
15Universidad de Concepcion2465131840-2223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion

  • 10 October 2026Cobresal 1–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 9 May 2026Cobresal 2–1 Universidad de ConcepcionCopa De La Liga
  • 13 April 2026Universidad de Concepcion 1–0 CobresalPrimera División
  • 26 March 2026Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 CobresalCopa De La Liga
  • 8 December 2020Cobresal 3–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 5 March 2020Universidad de Concepcion 2–2 CobresalPrimera División

Leading scorers: Cobresal and Universidad de Concepcion

Cobresal

GoalsAssists

  • S. Pino71

Universidad de Concepcion

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.