Palmeiras vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Palmeiras, 25% draw, 18% Bahia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs Bahia
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 12KhellvenM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 56ArthurM
- 42J. LópezM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 11J. AriasM
- 4A. GiayD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 18MaurícioM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 37FabianoM
- 1RonaldoG
- 31Roman GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 4KanuD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VélizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 17G. HerreraG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 27EveraldoF
- 7AdemirF
Form going into Palmeiras vs Bahia
Palmeiras
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
Bahia
- L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 22 | +30 | 63 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Bahia
- 5 April 2026Bahia 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 28 September 2025Bahia 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 April 2025Palmeiras 0–1 BahiaSerie A
- 20 November 2024Bahia 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 7 July 2024Palmeiras 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 28 October 2023Palmeiras 1–0 BahiaSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Bahia
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López94
- Maurício71
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.