Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Atletico Paranaense, 27% draw, 25% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
Line-ups
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 22C. TeránD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 18K. VargasM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 47ChiquetiM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 53DuduM
- 2GilbertoD
- 23SantosG
- 70RenanF
- 3LéoD
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 7FredM
- 11BernardM
- 19ReinierF
- 18T. BorbasF
- 15K. CastañoM
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 92DuduF
- 17Igor GomesM
- 36K. PasciniD
- 25T. PérezM
- 31RobertG
- 30Victor HugoM
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
Atletico Mineiro
- W1-0RB Bragantino3 October 2026
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | +14 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.