Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cruzeiro, 29% draw, 24% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Line-ups
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 12WilliamD
- 43João MarceloD
- 34JonathanD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 8GersonM
- 9Bruno RodriguesM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 84Kelvin Vinicius Barbosa CoutinhoD
- 99K. ArroyoF
- 23FágnerD
- 20Wesley GassovaF
- 5Zé LucasM
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 11MarquinhosF
- 1CássioG
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 2R. TolóiD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 18WendellM
- 16D. BobadillaF
- 9J. CalleriF
- 37ArturF
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 58Pedro Henrique Bezerra AraújoM
- 43G. SantanaF
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 17André SilvaF
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 41João Pedro Pantiga GomesG
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
Sao Paulo
- L1-2Santos2 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Pereira95
- Kaio Jorge82
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri101
- Luciano92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.