Santos vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 2-2 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Santos, 27% draw, 43% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Flamengo
Line-ups
- 1DiógenesG
- 23RodineiD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 15Willian ArãoD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 34João PauloG
- 5João SchmidtM
- 45LimaM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 30M. TercerosM
- 10NeymarF
- 81S. PierriM
- 1A. RossiG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 13DaniloD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 51Daniel SalesD
- 44VitãoD
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 19G. PlataF
- 8SaúlM
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 77Johnny GóesD
- 49DyogoG
- 18N. de la CruzM
Form going into Santos vs Flamengo
Santos
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
Flamengo
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 42 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Santos and Flamengo
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa143
- Neymar83
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro166
- Samuel Lino97
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.