Fluminense vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Fluminense, 22% draw, 19% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Coritiba
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 23GugaD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 29J. MillánD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 35HérculesM
- 8MartinelliM
- 90K. SernaM
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 7HulkF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 94OtávioM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 44JemmesD
- 41Ruan Sales OliveiraM
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 14F. BustosD
- 55JacyD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GómezM
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 28FabinhoF
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 3MaiconD
- 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 39GustavoM
- 13KeillerG
- 18Paulo RobertoM
Form going into Fluminense vs Coritiba
Fluminense
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
Coritiba
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 51 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Coritiba
- 4 April 2026Coritiba 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 26 November 2023Fluminense 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 24 July 2023Coritiba 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 20 August 2022Fluminense 5–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 1 May 2022Coritiba 3–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 20 January 2021Coritiba 3–3 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Coritiba
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.