Malmo FF
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Malmo FF 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Malmo FF, 25% draw, 20% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.83, Kalmar FF 0.88.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malmo FF at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. OlsenG
- 17J. Stryger LarsenD
- 5A. ĐurićD
- 44M. PålssonD
- 25BusanelloD
- 7O. RosengrenM
- 37A. SkogmarM
- 28J. MilosavljeviÄM
- 45A. HoogF
- 32D. GuðjohnsenF
- 15M. LahdoF
- 10A. ChristiansenM
- 27J. DahlinG
- 11E. EkongM
- 29S. HakšabanovićM
- 6Y. KarabelyovM
- 4B. KurtulusD
- 47Theodor LundberghM
- 54A. SundgrenD
- 42V. JeppssonM
- 1S. BrolinG
- 26M. YlitolvaD
- 39L. SætraD
- 4J. LöfgrenD
- 2V. LarssonD
- 17C. GustafssonM
- 5M. HallbergM
- 10M. SöderbäckM
- 21A. MagashyM
- 24C. SagoeM
- 6V. TyrenF
- 3S. ØverbyD
- 23R. GojaniM
- 12Z. RåvikD
- 25N. ShamounM
- 9M. StoltF
- 22T. LauritsenM
- 30J. KindbergG
- 19E. DallF
- 13Amara CamaraF
Form going into Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
Malmo FF
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
- W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
Kalmar FF
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for Malmo FF had two goals or fewer.
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Malmo FF | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 36 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
- 12 October 2026Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 20 July 2026Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 20 March 2026Malmo FF 1–1 Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs
- 24 August 2024Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 24 May 2024Malmo FF 5–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 8 October 2023Kalmar FF 1–0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Malmo FF and Kalmar FF
Malmo FF
GoalsAssists
- E. Botheim103
Kalmar FF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.83 goals for Malmo FF and 0.88 for Kalmar FF; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Otto Rosengren 72' (Malmo FF).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Malmo FF against 0.88 for Kalmar FF. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.67 for Kalmar FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.