Regular Season - 4 · 12 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat Botola Pro prediction & result

Stade Al Inbiaâte, Agadir
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Hassania Agadir 2-2 FAR Rabat.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Hassania Agadir, 27% draw, 42% FAR Rabat — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Hassania Agadir 1.31, FAR Rabat 1.59.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat

59%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%0-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FAR Rabat at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hassania Agadir95%Draw5%FAR Rabat0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Anas Bachassist: Abdelfettah Hadraf
32'
Ahmed Hammoudan
⚽Imad Riahi
34'
🔁Ayoub Bouchetaout: Moud Bahsain
58'
🔁Mohamed Doumbiaout: Jalal Tachtach
58'
59'
🔁Ahmed Hammoudanout: Yazid Faffa
59'
🔁Mohcine Bourigaout: Allan Okello
🔁Tumisang Orebonyeout: a brayim
66'
🔁Amine Azriout: Salaheddine Benyachou
66'
69'
🔁To Carneiroout: Jamal Ech-Chammakh
⚽Ayoub Qasmiassist: a brayim
72'
76'
🔁Abdelfettah Hadrafout: S. El Bouchqali
76'
🔁Zinedine Derragout: bola jephte kitambala
🔁Imad Riahiout: Ismail Hrila
80'
90'
⚽youssef fahli al

Match stats — Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat

46%Possession54%
7Shots8
3On target5
3Corners4

Line-ups

Hassania Agadir 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. MerbahG
  • 27A. TarraziM
  • 30S. Lamrany
  • 15A. QasmiD
  • 24A. BouchetaD
  • 42M. DoumbiaM
  • 32E. AkoumiM
  • 20I. RiahiM
  • 2A. BennadiM
  • 11A. AzriF
  • 28Tumisang OrebonyeF
Substitutes
  • 14A. Ait BrayimM
  • 6M. BahsainD
  • 7Salaheddine BenyachouF
  • 19Euclides da Silva CabralD
  • 4I. HrilaD
  • 31I. MotikG
  • 10A. QassaqM
  • M. SahdF
  • 5J. TachtachM
Coach: H. Et-Tair
FAR Rabat 4-3-3
  • 16A. TagnaoutiG
  • 3A. BachM
  • 15M. LouadniD
  • 4Fallou Formose MendyD
  • 2Tó CarneiroD
  • 40A. HadrafM
  • 6Zinedine DerragM
  • 8K. Aït OuarkhaneM
  • 7Y. ElfahliF
  • 9M. BourigaF
  • 11A. HammoudanF
Substitutes
  • Y. FaffaF
  • 22M. JemjamiG
  • 30J. KitambalaF
  • 26Nabil MarmoukD
  • 14A. OkelloF
  • 20S. El BouchqaliM
  • 10J. E. El KhfiyefM
  • 23J. Ech-ChammakhD
  • 27A. Ait KhassouD
Coach: Pedro Soares Gonçalves

Form going into Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat

Hassania Agadir

  • W5-2away to CR Khemis Zemamra8 October 2026
  • L1-2Maghreb Fès3 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Kawkab Marrakech27 September 2026

FAR Rabat

  • W1-0Widad Témara8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Botola Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Hassania Agadir4211118+37
8FAR Rabat211032+14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat

  • 12 October 2026Hassania Agadir 2–2 FAR RabatBotola Pro
  • 10 May 2026Hassania Agadir 2–3 FAR RabatBotola Pro
  • 29 October 2025FAR Rabat 3–0 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
  • 11 May 2025Hassania Agadir 0–3 FAR RabatBotola Pro
  • 22 December 2024FAR Rabat 2–1 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
  • 27 April 2024Hassania Agadir 2–1 FAR RabatBotola Pro

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.31 goals for Hassania Agadir and 1.59 for FAR Rabat; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Anas Bach 4' (FAR Rabat), Imad Riahi 34' (Hassania Agadir), Ayoub Qasmi 72' (Hassania Agadir), youssef fahli al 90' (FAR Rabat).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FAR Rabat the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hassania Agadir against 1.59 for FAR Rabat. Hassania Agadir's attack/defence rating is 0.7/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.51 for FAR Rabat.