AC Oulu
vs
HJK Helsinki
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: AC Oulu 3-4 HJK Helsinki.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% AC Oulu, 23% draw, 51% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.41, HJK Helsinki 2.17.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Model insights: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HJK Helsinki at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Miguel SantosG
- 16O. KemppainenD
- 5M. PitkänenD
- 66J. PirinenD
- 22T. KaukuaD
- 36J. LotvonenM
- 25M. ArsaloM
- 21I. MendolinM
- 27E. KallioM
- 10C. TrianaF
- 7R. KarjalainenF
- 18Adramane CassamáD
- 11L. GhezaliF
- 14N. JokelainenM
- 3J. LietsaD
- 30J. MakelainenM
- 9R. RiskiF
- 99N. SchulzG
- 2S. SipolaD
- 19J. OmotayoM
- 1J. ÖstG
- 17N. AlhoD
- 31M. BogićevićD
- 6V. TikkanenD
- 14L. MontanoD
- 22L. MöllerM
- 4A. RingM
- 8P. MentuM
- 29S. HaaralaF
- 9M. BorchersF
- 7Alfie CicaleF
- 13K. SimojokiD
- 77J. VeteliM
- 20T. PukkiF
- 30J. SamoojaG
- 10L. LingmanM
- 24E. LeveälahtiD
- 87N. KroupkinF
- 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
- 11M. KirilovM
Form going into AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
- W1-0away to KuPS8 October 2026
- L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
- L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
- L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026
HJK Helsinki
- W6-0VPS8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan18 September 2026
- D0-0away to KuPS13 September 2026
- W2-1Inter Turku9 September 2026
What these results say
- AC Oulu failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- AC Oulu conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.
- HJK Helsinki went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- HJK Helsinki scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC Oulu | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 32 | +17 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
- 12 October 2026AC Oulu 3–4 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
- 9 August 2026AC Oulu 0–1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
- 11 April 2026HJK Helsinki 0–1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
- 14 March 2026AC Oulu 2–1 HJK HelsinkiLeague Cup
- 21 August 2025HJK Helsinki 1–0 AC OuluSuomen Cup
- 20 July 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
GoalsAssists
- R. Riski30
- J. Körkkö22
HJK Helsinki
GoalsAssists
- M. Borchers91
- T. Pukki42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.41 goals for AC Oulu and 2.17 for HJK Helsinki; the game produced 3 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mads Borchers 20' (HJK Helsinki), Liam Möller 41' (HJK Helsinki), Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo 48' (AC Oulu), Mads Borchers 64' (HJK Helsinki), Roope Riski 77' (AC Oulu), Mikko Pitkanen 84' (AC Oulu), Joona Veteli 86' (HJK Helsinki).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HJK Helsinki the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for AC Oulu against 2.17 for HJK Helsinki. AC Oulu's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.97 for HJK Helsinki.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.