Championship Group - 27 · 12 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

VPS vs Gnistan Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Jyväskylä
Referee: Dennis Antamo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: VPS 1-0 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% VPS, 27% draw, 38% Gnistan — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: VPS 1.45, Gnistan 1.53.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: VPS vs Gnistan

61%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gnistan at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS95%Draw5%Gnistan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Xavier Odhiamboassist: Casper Holmelund
36'
45'
🔁Artur Atarahout: Joakim Latonen
61'
🔁Danny Pérezout: Sergey Eremenko
61'
🔁Adam Jouhiout: Saku Ylätupa
🔁Xavier Odhiamboout: Henri Salomaa
64'
🔁Casper Holmelundout: Jonathan Muzinga
64'
🔁Jayden Turfkruierout: Yassin Daoussi
75'
🔁Joonas Vahteraout: Simon Lindholm
75'
76'
🔁Edmund Arko-Mensahout: Otto Hannula
85'
🔁Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga Obileyeout: Noah Rossi
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Razak Simpson
87'
87'

Match stats — VPS vs Gnistan

51%Possession49%
11Shots10
3On target4
2Corners3
1.73xG0.61

Goals against chances

VPS1 from 1.73 xGless than the chances were worth
Gnistan0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 2L. ManeD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 20X. OdhiamboM
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 30J. VahteraF
Substitutes
  • 24Y. DaoussiD
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 26Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
  • 29W. SamakéF
  • 3Razak SimpsonM
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
Coach: J. Nuorela
Gnistan 5-4-1
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 24P. GnanouD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 3RuxiD
  • 12E. Arko-MensahD
  • 7A. AtarahM
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 11D. PérezM
  • 26R. EremenkoF
Substitutes
  • 23S. YlätupaF
  • 25Noah RossiD
  • 40J. OjalaD
  • 10J. LatonenF
  • 95M. JuričkaG
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 14S. EremenkoM
  • 2B. DahlströmD
Coach: Jussi Leppälahti

Form going into VPS vs Gnistan

VPS

  • L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
  • L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
  • W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026

Gnistan

  • D0-0Inter Turku7 October 2026
  • D1-1HJK Helsinki18 September 2026
  • W2-1away to AC Oulu12 September 2026
  • D1-1KuPS8 September 2026

What these results say

  • VPS failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • VPS failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • VPS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Gnistan went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Gnistan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Gnistan scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5VPS27116103131039
4Gnistan2711974033+742

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs Gnistan

  • 12 October 2026VPS 1–0 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • 27 June 2026Gnistan 1–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • 9 May 2026VPS 1–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • 15 August 2025Gnistan 0–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • 18 June 2025VPS 0–0 GnistanVeikkausliiga
  • 23 October 2024VPS 0–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: VPS and Gnistan

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for VPS and 1.53 for Gnistan; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Xavier Odhiambo 36' (VPS).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gnistan the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for VPS against 1.53 for Gnistan. VPS's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.94 for Gnistan.