10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Mariehamn vs Ilves Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Mariehamn
Referee: Matti Roth
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Mariehamn 1-1 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Mariehamn, 22% draw, 53% Ilves — fair odds of 4.00, 4.55 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ilves at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mariehamn4%Draw89%Ilves7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Samson Ngulube
35'
43'
Sauli Väisänen
45+3'
Goudouss Bamba
🔁Samson Ngulubeout: Aaro Soiniemi
64'
🔁Anttoni Huttunenout: Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
64'
66'
Matias Rale
66'
🔁Goudouss Bambaout: Maksim Stjopin
66'
🔁Oskari Multalaout: Yiandro Raap
67'
🔁Elias Tamminenout: Stanislav Baranov
69'
⚽Teemu Hytönen
Arvid Bergvik
74'
78'
🔁Matias Raleout: Tatu Miettunen
🔁Adam Larssonout: Marlo Hyvonen
81'
⚽Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsenassist: Ludvig Richtner
84'
87'
🔁Teemu Hytönenout: Hamidou Coulibaly
🔁Adam Stroudout: Wille Nuñez
88'

Match stats — Mariehamn vs Ilves

56%Possession44%
16Shots16
2On target4
5Corners3
1.66xG1.95

Goals against chances

Mariehamn1 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Ilves1 from 1.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 27L. RichtnérD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 31Samson NgulubeD
  • 23V. WidlundM
  • 20E. PatutM
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 14Arvid BergvikM
  • 18A. StroudM
  • 7A. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 12O. HeinoG
  • 17Rasmus HolmbergM
  • 19T. JakobsenF
  • 26M. JanssonM
  • 9W. NuñezF
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 64M. HyvönenM
Coach: R. Björknesjö
Ilves 4-4-2
  • 12F. KrkalićG
  • 22O. MultalaD
  • 5S. VäisänenD
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 19Goudouss BambaM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 45E. TamminenF
  • 9T. HytönenF
Substitutes
  • 17S. BaranovF
  • 11H. CoulibalyF
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 6Y. RaapM
  • 33Y. SackoM
  • 8M. StjopinF
Coach: Camilo Speranza

Form going into Mariehamn vs Ilves

Mariehamn

  • L1-2away to SJK18 September 2026
  • W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
  • W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
  • W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026

Ilves

  • W3-0away to Turku PS19 September 2026
  • W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
  • W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
  • L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
  • L0-1VPS22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Ilves

  • 10 October 2026Mariehamn 1–1 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • 9 August 2026Ilves 2–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 18 April 2026Mariehamn 2–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
  • 31 August 2025Ilves 2–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 27 April 2025Mariehamn 3–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: Mariehamn and Ilves

Mariehamn

No leading scorers listed yet.

Ilves

GoalsAssists

  • T. Hytönen80
  • J. Kanga43
  • E. Tamminen32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.