9 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

SJK vs Lahti Veikkausliiga prediction & result

OmaSp Stadion, Seinajoki
Referee: Amir Hajizadeh
Full time1 – 0

Final score: SJK 1-0 Lahti.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% SJK, 28% draw, 36% Lahti — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SJK at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SJK96%Draw4%Lahti0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽ Armaan Wilsonassist: Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
6'
Jeremiah Streng
34'
K. Nwanege
39'
62'
🔁Vaino Vehkonenout: José Müller
62'
🔁Aaron Lindholmout: Amir Belabid
62'
🔁Justus Ojanenout: Martim Ferreira
69'
🔁Otso Koskinenout: Erik Andersson
🔁Kelwin Souza do Nascimentoout: Elias Mastokangas
69'
79'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
🔁 Armaan Wilsonout: Leon Vesterbacka
80'
86'
🔁Topias Inkinenout: Armend Kabashi
🔁Jeremiah Strengout: Aziz Cisse
87'
🔁Salim Giabo Yussifout: Souleimane Bagayogo
87'
89'
Momodou Sarr

Match stats — SJK vs Lahti

41%Possession59%
13Shots14
6On target3
3Corners9
1.86xG0.74

Goals against chances

SJK1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Lahti0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SJK 5-3-2
  • 35J. ViitalaG
  • 6S. YussifD
  • 28K. NwanegeD
  • 2Facundo CostantiniD
  • 5O. VäistöD
  • 15E. MömmöD
  • 23A. WilsonM
  • 48A. TraoreM
  • 8A. BoströmM
  • 7KelwinF
  • 9J. StrengF
Substitutes
  • 51A. CisseF
  • 19E. MastokangasF
  • 31E. OnuohaM
  • 49E. UdomD
  • 43S. BagayogoD
  • 1R. PaunioG
  • 22L. VesterbackaM
Coach: J. Wiss
Lahti 4-3-3
  • 12A. HakalaG
  • 7D. HeikkinenD
  • 5NícolasD
  • 6V. VehkonenD
  • 25T. InkinenD
  • 8Tòfol MontielM
  • 18Y. CassubieM
  • 10O. KoskinenM
  • 77M. SarrF
  • 9A. LindholmF
  • 20J. OjanenF
Substitutes
  • 4J. MullerD
  • 41A. PaalanenF
  • 11Martim FerreiraF
  • 31O. MaukonenG
  • 17A. BelabidF
  • 14E. AnderssonM
  • 28A. KabashiM
Coach: Gonçalo Pereira

Form going into SJK vs Lahti

SJK

  • W2-1Mariehamn18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to FF Jaro12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
  • D0-0Lahti21 August 2026

Lahti

  • D1-1FF Jaro18 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
  • W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
  • W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026
  • D0-0away to SJK21 August 2026

What these results say

  • SJK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • SJK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for SJK had two goals or fewer.
  • Lahti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: SJK vs Lahti

  • 21 August 2026SJK 1–2 LahtiVeikkausliiga
  • 13 June 2026Lahti 2–3 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • 27 July 2024SJK 5–5 LahtiVeikkausliiga
  • 27 May 2024Lahti 0–4 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • 16 July 2023Lahti 1–1 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • 22 April 2023SJK 0–0 LahtiVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: SJK and Lahti

SJK

GoalsAssists

  • E. Mastokangas22
  • J. Streng21

Lahti

GoalsAssists

  • Martim Ferreira41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.