HJK Helsinki vs VPS Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: HJK Helsinki 6-0 VPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% HJK Helsinki, 25% draw, 26% VPS — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Veikkausliiga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HJK Helsinki at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HJK Helsinki vs VPS
Line-ups
- 1J. ÖstG
- 17N. AlhoD
- 31M. BogićevićD
- 6V. TikkanenD
- 14L. MontanoD
- 10L. LingmanM
- 4A. RingM
- 9M. BorchersM
- 29S. HaaralaM
- 7Alfie CicaleM
- 20T. PukkiF
- 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
- 87N. KroupkinF
- 24E. LeveälahtiD
- 8P. MentuM
- 22L. MöllerM
- 30J. SamoojaG
- 13K. SimojokiD
- 77J. VeteliM
- 11M. KirilovM
- 41M. JallohG
- 23M. NiemiD
- 6E. OkerekeD
- 19M. HaukiojaD
- 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
- 34A. RäisänenM
- 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
- 24Y. DaoussiM
- 14S. LindholmM
- 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
- 29W. SamakéF
- 20X. OdhiamboF
- 1A. PiispaG
- 25Henri SalomaaF
- 3Razak SimpsonM
- 17Dren TërrnavaM
- 7J. TurfkruierD
- 30J. VahteraM
- 11J. MuzingaF
- 9C. HolmelundF
Form going into HJK Helsinki vs VPS
HJK Helsinki
- D1-1away to Gnistan18 September 2026
- D0-0away to KuPS13 September 2026
- W2-1Inter Turku9 September 2026
VPS
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 32 | +17 | 48 |
| 5 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and VPS
HJK Helsinki
GoalsAssists
- M. Borchers91
- T. Pukki42
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.