8 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

KuPS vs AC Oulu Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Referee: Kontinen Joona
Full time0 – 1

Final score: KuPS 0-1 AC Oulu.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% KuPS, 23% draw, 16% AC Oulu — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KuPS at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS0%Draw6%AC Oulu94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoassist: Joel lotvonen
45'
🔁Iiro Mendolinout: Julius Paananen
Bob Nii Armah
58'
🔁Saku Savolainenout: Samuel Pasanen
60'
🔁Tommi Jyryout: Ayman Aiki
60'
65'
Tuomas Kaukua
⚽Piotr Parzyszek (pen)
66'
71'
🔁Elias Kallioout: Adramane Cassama
71'
🔁Rasmus Karjalainenout: Roope Riski
🔁Valentin Gascout: Julius Eskesen
76'
🔁Clinton Antwiout: Niilo Kujasalo
76'
82'
🔁Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoout: Juuso Mäkeläinen
82'
🔁Joel lotvonenout: Niklas Jokelainen

Match stats — KuPS vs AC Oulu

64%Possession36%
17Shots7
4On target3
9Corners3

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
Substitutes
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 15A. AikiF
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 17A. HeinonenM
Coach: M. Nuutinen
AC Oulu 4-4-2
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 36J. LotvonenM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
  • 10C. TrianaF
Substitutes
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 30J. MakelainenM
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 99N. SchulzG
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 24Thomas Celestine SeleF
  • 14N. JokelainenM
Coach: M. Isokangas

Form going into KuPS vs AC Oulu

KuPS

  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026

AC Oulu

  • L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
  • L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3KuPS2713954126+1548
6AC Oulu27114123033-337

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: KuPS and AC Oulu

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno50
  • J. Luyeye-Lutumba31
  • B. Armah30

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Riski30
  • J. Körkkö22

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.