Athletic Club MG
vs
Londrina
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club MG 2-2 Londrina.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Athletic Club MG, 24% draw, 27% Londrina — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Athletic Club MG 2.08, Londrina 1.41.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Model insights: Athletic Club MG vs Londrina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club MG at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club MG vs Londrina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luan PolliG
- 3JhonatanD
- 4Lucas BeleziD
- 19J. TorresD
- 22Diogo BatistaM
- 15JotaM
- 16João MiguelM
- 23EnzoM
- 17KauanF
- 11MaxF
- 10Kauan LindesF
- 12TonyG
- 6ZecaD
- 13YarlenF
- 20W. AponzaF
- 14Yago SantosM
- 5Felipe NegrucciM
- 21D. VeraF
- 2Douglas PeléD
- 8AssisM
- 1LuanG
- 75Kauê LeonardoD
- 44Caio RodriguesD
- 4WallaceD
- 34HeronD
- 5TárikM
- 7Victor HugoM
- 38Geovane MeurerM
- 22João VitorM
- 28HerbertM
- 23William PottkerF
- 96ThalisM
- 17João ConiF
- 30Mauricio KozlinskiG
- 9GilbertoF
- 13André Dhominique Queiroz Santiago da SilvaD
- 33KevynD
- 15Gabriel LacerdaD
- 19Cainã Santos Da SilvaM
- 99Igor BahiaF
Form going into Athletic Club MG vs Londrina
Athletic Club MG
- L1-2away to Goias6 October 2026
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC27 September 2026
- D1-1Botafogo SP19 September 2026
Londrina
- L1-2away to Avai7 October 2026
- L0-2Criciuma2 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vila Nova25 September 2026
- L1-2Fortaleza EC20 September 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club MG did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Athletic Club MG scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Londrina did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Londrina conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 43 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club MG vs Londrina
- 13 October 2026Athletic Club MG 2–2 LondrinaSerie B
- 20 June 2026Londrina 2–0 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 5 October 2024Athletic Club MG 2–1 LondrinaSerie C
- 2 September 2024Londrina 2–3 Athletic Club MGSerie C
- 13 July 2024Athletic Club MG 2–1 LondrinaSerie C
Leading scorers: Athletic Club MG and Londrina
Athletic Club MG
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Londrina
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Santos113
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.08 goals for Athletic Club MG and 1.41 for Londrina; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: João Vitor de Souza Martins 4' (Londrina), João Miguel 18' (Athletic Club MG), João Vitor de Souza Martins 84' (Londrina), João Miguel 89' (Athletic Club MG).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club MG the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Athletic Club MG against 1.41 for Londrina. Athletic Club MG's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2 for Londrina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.