Ceara
vs
Juventude
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ceara 1–0 Juventude
The model makes it 46% Ceara, 27% draw, 27% Juventude — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ceara 1.59, Juventude 1.10.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ceara are 15th on 42 points from 33 games; Juventude are 3rd on 60 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Ceara have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Botafogo SP.
- Juventude are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to São Bernardo.
- Last 6 meetings: Juventude 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Juventude 2–0 Ceara.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ceara vs Juventude
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ceara vs Juventude
Ceara
- L0-1away to Botafogo SP13 October 2026
- W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
- W2-1Novorizontino18 September 2026
Juventude
- D2-2São Bernardo11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
- W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife19 September 2026
What these results say
- Ceara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juventude scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juventude
Chance to win the league · 25% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ceara vs Juventude
- 28 June 2026Juventude 2–0 CearaSerie B
- 30 August 2025Ceara 0–1 JuventudeSerie A
- 12 April 2025Juventude 2–1 CearaSerie A
- 25 November 2023Ceara 1–3 JuventudeSerie B
- 23 July 2023Juventude 1–0 CearaSerie B
- 13 November 2022Ceara 4–1 JuventudeSerie A
Leading scorers: Ceara and Juventude
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ceara carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.56 for Juventude. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Ceara and 1.10 for Juventude. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ceara rate 0.73 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventude rate 0.75 and 1.34.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Juventude, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ceara a 0% chance of the title and Juventude 25.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ceara the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ceara against 1.10 for Juventude. Ceara's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.34 for Juventude.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ceara at home · Juventude away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ceara 33, Juventude 33.
Ceara score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Juventude have let in 5 there.
Juventude score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Ceara have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ceara
- vs Goias27 Oct · Serie Bwin 58%
- at Athletic Club MG2 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs America Mineiro8 Nov · Serie Bwin 71%
- at CRB14 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Juventude
- vs Nautico Recife26 Oct · Serie Bwin 61%
- at Vila Nova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Cuiaba7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Botafogo SP14 Nov · Serie Bwin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.