Qingdao Jonoon
vs
Shenyang Urban
Super League prediction
Our model says: Qingdao Jonoon 2–1 Shenyang Urban
The model makes it 41% Qingdao Jonoon, 25% draw, 34% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Qingdao Jonoon 1.78, Shenyang Urban 1.56.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Qingdao Jonoon are bottom on 14 points from 27 games; Shenyang Urban are 14th on 26 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Qingdao Jonoon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Beijing Guoan.
- Shenyang Urban have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wuhan Three Towns.
- Last 4 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended Shenyang Urban 2–1 Qingdao Jonoon.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qingdao Jonoon at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban
Qingdao Jonoon
- L0-3Beijing Guoan9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dalian Zhixing5 September 2026
- L1-5Wuhan Three Towns29 August 2026
- L1-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shandong Luneng14 August 2026
Shenyang Urban
- D1-1Wuhan Three Towns11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tianjin Teda12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Yunnan Yukun6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chengdu Better City29 August 2026
- D4-4Henan Jianye23 August 2026
What these results say
- Qingdao Jonoon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Jonoon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Qingdao Jonoon had three goals or more.
- Shenyang Urban did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Shenyang Urban conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 14 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shenyang Urban
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban
- 20 May 2026Shenyang Urban 2–1 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
- 21 May 2025Shenyang Urban 0–0 Qingdao JonoonFA Cup
- 3 December 2022Qingdao Jonoon 2–0 Shenyang UrbanLeague One
- 9 November 2022Shenyang Urban 0–3 Qingdao JonoonLeague One
Leading scorers: Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban
Qingdao Jonoon
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Shenyang Urban
GoalsAssists
- Jeffinho102
- G. Mbenza91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qingdao Jonoon carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.13 for Shenyang Urban. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.56 for Shenyang Urban. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.46 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shenyang Urban rate 0.48 and 2.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shenyang Urban, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qingdao Jonoon the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.56 for Shenyang Urban. Qingdao Jonoon's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.04 for Shenyang Urban.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qingdao Jonoon at home · Shenyang Urban away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Qingdao Jonoon 27, Shenyang Urban 27.
Qingdao Jonoon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Shenyang Urban have let in 9 there.
Shenyang Urban score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Qingdao Jonoon have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Qingdao Jonoon
- at Chongqing Tongliang Long24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 25%
- vs Sichuan Jiuniu8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 39%
Shenyang Urban
- vs Hangzhou Greentown24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 37%
- at SHANGHAI SIPG8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.