Shandong Luneng
vs
Hangzhou Greentown
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shandong Luneng 2–1 Hangzhou Greentown
The model makes it 50% Shandong Luneng, 22% draw, 28% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 2.00, 4.55 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 2.45, Hangzhou Greentown 1.73.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shandong Luneng are 4th on 38 points from 27 games; Hangzhou Greentown are 10th on 31 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Shandong Luneng are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Hangzhou Greentown have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to SHANGHAI SIPG.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 Shandong Luneng.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
Shandong Luneng
- D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long11 October 2026
- D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
Hangzhou Greentown
- L2-4SHANGHAI SIPG9 October 2026
- W4-1Wuhan Three Towns18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Tianjin Teda6 September 2026
- W6-0Yunnan Yukun29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
What these results say
- Shandong Luneng conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shandong Luneng.
- Hangzhou Greentown scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hangzhou Greentown conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hangzhou Greentown had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shandong Luneng
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
Hangzhou Greentown
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
- 20 May 2026Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 18 October 2025Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 10 May 2025Shandong Luneng 4–2 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 27 October 2024Hangzhou Greentown 3–3 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 25 May 2024Shandong Luneng 3–0 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 22 July 2023Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
Leading scorers: Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown
Shandong Luneng
GoalsAssists
- Cryzan166
- Zeca94
Hangzhou Greentown
GoalsAssists
- A. Mitriță1112
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shandong Luneng carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.29 for Hangzhou Greentown. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.45 goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.73 for Hangzhou Greentown. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shandong Luneng rate 0.63 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.66 and 2.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shandong Luneng the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Shandong Luneng against 1.73 for Hangzhou Greentown. Shandong Luneng's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.05 for Hangzhou Greentown.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shandong Luneng at home · Hangzhou Greentown away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Shandong Luneng 27, Hangzhou Greentown 27.
Hangzhou Greentown score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Shandong Luneng have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Shandong Luneng
- at Wuhan Three Towns24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- vs Chengdu Better City8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 41%
Hangzhou Greentown
- at Shenyang Urban24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 39%
- vs Henan Jianye8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.