Dalian Zhixing
vs
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League prediction
Our model says: Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Sichuan Jiuniu
The model makes it 52% Dalian Zhixing, 25% draw, 23% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dalian Zhixing 1.96, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.14.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Dalian Zhixing: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dalian Zhixing are 2nd on 43 points from 27 games; Sichuan Jiuniu are 11th on 29 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Dalian Zhixing are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Qingdao Youth Island.
- Sichuan Jiuniu are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Henan Jianye.
- Last 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian Zhixing.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dalian Zhixing at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Dalian Zhixing
- W4-0away to Qingdao Youth Island11 October 2026
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon5 September 2026
- D1-1Beijing Guoan28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Chongqing Tongliang Long23 August 2026
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG19 August 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
- D2-2Henan Jianye9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
What these results say
- Dalian Zhixing went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 43 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dalian Zhixing
Chance to finish in the top four · 94% today
Sichuan Jiuniu
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- 19 May 2026Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 14 September 2025Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 26 April 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
Leading scorers: Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu
Dalian Zhixing
GoalsAssists
- F. Acheampong114
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes125
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dalian Zhixing carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.16 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.14 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dalian Zhixing rate 0.54 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.48 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dalian Zhixing a 0.1% chance of the title and Sichuan Jiuniu 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dalian Zhixing the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing against 1.14 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Dalian Zhixing's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.92 for Sichuan Jiuniu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dalian Zhixing at home · Sichuan Jiuniu away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Dalian Zhixing 27, Sichuan Jiuniu 27.
Dalian Zhixing score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Sichuan Jiuniu have let in 20 there.
Sichuan Jiuniu score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dalian Zhixing have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Dalian Zhixing
- at Chengdu Better City24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 25%
- vs Tianjin Teda8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
Sichuan Jiuniu
- vs Shanghai Shenhua24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 33%
- at Qingdao Jonoon8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.