Yunnan Yukun
vs
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Super League prediction
Our model says: Yunnan Yukun 2–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long
The model makes it 50% Yunnan Yukun, 24% draw, 26% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.01, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.33.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Yunnan Yukun are 5th on 38 points from 27 games; Chongqing Tongliang Long are 9th on 32 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Yunnan Yukun have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-7 defeat away to Shanghai Shenhua.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shandong Luneng.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yunnan Yukun at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yunnan Yukun
- L1-7away to Shanghai Shenhua10 October 2026
- W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026
- L0-6away to Hangzhou Greentown29 August 2026
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- D1-1Shandong Luneng11 October 2026
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye29 August 2026
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Yunnan Yukun had three goals or more.
- Yunnan Yukun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Yunnan Yukun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chongqing Tongliang Long had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Yunnan Yukun
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 2 September 2026Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang LongFA Cup
- 20 May 2026Chongqing Tongliang Long 0–0 Yunnan YukunSuper League
- 15 September 2024Chongqing Tongliang Long 3–2 Yunnan YukunLeague One
- 27 April 2024Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongLeague One
- 2 July 2023Yunnan Yukun 0–0 Chongqing Tongliang LongLeague Two
- 6 May 2023Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Yunnan YukunLeague Two
Leading scorers: Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu209
- Cléber135
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Yunnan Yukun carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.19 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.33 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Yunnan Yukun rate 0.69 in attack and 2.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.38 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Yunnan Yukun the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun against 1.33 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Yunnan Yukun's attack/defence rating is 0.69/2.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.54 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Yunnan Yukun at home · Chongqing Tongliang Long away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Yunnan Yukun 27, Chongqing Tongliang Long 27.
Yunnan Yukun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Chongqing Tongliang Long have let in 7 there.
Chongqing Tongliang Long score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Yunnan Yukun have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Yunnan Yukun
- at Qingdao Youth Island24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 31%
- vs Wuhan Three Towns8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 50%
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- vs Qingdao Jonoon24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 48%
- at Beijing Guoan8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.