Baranovichi
vs
FC Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baranovichi 0–1 FC Vitebsk
The model makes it 31% Baranovichi, 29% draw, 40% FC Vitebsk — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Baranovichi 1.10, FC Vitebsk 1.34.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Vitebsk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Baranovichi are 11th on 25 points from 24 games; FC Vitebsk are 7th on 37 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Baranovichi are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Neman.
- FC Vitebsk are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FC Isloch Minsk R..
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended FC Vitebsk 2–3 Baranovichi.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Vitebsk at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk
Baranovichi
- L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026
- L0-2FC Gomel20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk12 September 2026
- W2-1FC Dnepr Mogilev6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk29 August 2026
FC Vitebsk
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026
- W6-0Torpedo Zhodino20 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slavia Mozyr4 September 2026
- W2-0Naftan28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baranovichi | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Baranovichi
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Baranovichi vs FC Vitebsk
- 31 May 2026FC Vitebsk 2–3 BaranovichiPremier League
- 24 September 2023Baranovichi 0–4 FC Vitebsk1. Division
- 20 May 2023FC Vitebsk 0–1 Baranovichi1. Division
- 29 August 2020Baranovichi 0–6 FC VitebskCoppa
The two sides
Baranovichi carry a model rating of 6.01 against 6.27 for FC Vitebsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Baranovichi and 1.34 for FC Vitebsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baranovichi rate 0.43 in attack and 2.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Vitebsk rate 0.48 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vitebsk the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Baranovichi against 1.34 for FC Vitebsk. Baranovichi's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.57 for FC Vitebsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baranovichi at home · FC Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baranovichi 24, FC Vitebsk 24.
Baranovichi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); FC Vitebsk have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Baranovichi
- at FC Minsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Naftan31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- at Slavia Mozyr7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Belshina21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Torpedo Zhodino28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
FC Vitebsk
- vs ML Vitebsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Dinamo Brest31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Dinamo Minsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at FC Dnepr Mogilev21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.