Torpedo Zhodino
vs
Naftan
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Torpedo Zhodino 2–1 Naftan
The model makes it 59% Torpedo Zhodino, 22% draw, 19% Naftan — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Torpedo Zhodino 2.43, Naftan 1.19.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Torpedo Zhodino: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Torpedo Zhodino are 9th on 30 points from 23 games; Naftan are 15th on 17 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Torpedo Zhodino have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to ML Vitebsk.
- Naftan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Belshina.
- Last 6 meetings: Torpedo Zhodino 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended Naftan 0–4 Torpedo Zhodino.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Zhodino at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan
Torpedo Zhodino
- L0-2away to ML Vitebsk15 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Minsk10 October 2026
- L0-6away to FC Vitebsk20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman12 September 2026
- L1-2FC Gomel5 September 2026
Naftan
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Slavia Mozyr19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bate Borisov13 September 2026
- L0-3FC Minsk6 September 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Minsk2 September 2026
What these results say
- Torpedo Zhodino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Zhodino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Naftan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 30 |
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Naftan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 99% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan
- 29 May 2026Naftan 0–4 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 25 September 2025Torpedo Zhodino 4–2 NaftanPremier League
- 12 May 2025Naftan 0–3 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 29 September 2024Naftan 1–1 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 12 May 2024Torpedo Zhodino 2–1 NaftanPremier League
- 8 October 2023Naftan 0–1 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
The two sides
Torpedo Zhodino carry a model rating of 6.11 against 5.93 for Naftan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.43 goals for Torpedo Zhodino and 1.19 for Naftan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torpedo Zhodino rate 0.47 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Naftan rate 0.48 and 3.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Zhodino the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Torpedo Zhodino against 1.19 for Naftan. Torpedo Zhodino's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/3.18 for Naftan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torpedo Zhodino at home · Naftan away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Torpedo Zhodino 23, Naftan 24.
Torpedo Zhodino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Naftan have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Torpedo Zhodino
- at Slavia Mozyr24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Belshina31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- at Bate Borisov7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Baranovichi28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
Naftan
- vs FC Isloch Minsk R.24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Baranovichi31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs ML Vitebsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 14%
- at Dinamo Brest21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 10%
- vs Dinamo Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.