Dinamo Minsk
vs
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
The model makes it 71% Dinamo Minsk, 18% draw, 11% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 2.70, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0.83.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dinamo Minsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Minsk are top on 49 points from 23 games; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are 12th on 23 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Minsk are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Slavia Mozyr.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dinamo Brest.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Minsk 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–1 Dinamo Minsk.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Minsk at 71% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Dinamo Minsk
- W3-1Slavia Mozyr15 October 2026
- W3-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev11 October 2026
- W2-0Bate Borisov19 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Brest13 September 2026
- D0-0away to ML Vitebsk6 September 2026
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026
- L1-5away to ML Vitebsk18 September 2026
- D0-0Baranovichi12 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.7 September 2026
- L2-4Torpedo Zhodino30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Minsk | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 19 | +24 | 49 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 42 | -18 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Minsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 49% today
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- 30 May 2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–1 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 8 November 2025Dinamo Minsk 1–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 22 June 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–1 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 29 October 2024Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 1 June 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
- 11 March 2023Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–2 Dinamo MinskFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Dinamo Minsk carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.05 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.70 goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.83 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Minsk rate 0.70 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk rate 0.48 and 2.37.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Minsk a 49.3% chance of the title and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk against 0.83 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. Dinamo Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.37 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Minsk at home · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Minsk 23, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 24.
Dinamo Minsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have let in 12 there.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Dinamo Minsk have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Minsk
- at FC Gomel24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Neman31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- at FC Vitebsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs FC Minsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 62%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- vs FC Dnepr Mogilev24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- vs Bate Borisov31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at FC Gomel7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Neman21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at FC Vitebsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.