Avai
vs
Athletic Club MG
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avai 2–1 Athletic Club MG
The model makes it 41% Avai, 27% draw, 32% Athletic Club MG — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Avai 1.61, Athletic Club MG 1.34.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Avai are 17th on 36 points from 33 games; Athletic Club MG are 13th on 43 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Avai have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Cuiaba.
- Athletic Club MG have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Londrina.
- Last 3 meetings: Athletic Club MG 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Athletic Club MG 1–0 Avai.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Avai vs Athletic Club MG
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avai at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Avai vs Athletic Club MG
Avai
- W1-0away to Cuiaba11 October 2026
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Goias20 September 2026
Athletic Club MG
- D2-2Londrina13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Goias6 October 2026
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC27 September 2026
- D1-1Botafogo SP19 September 2026
What these results say
- Avai conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Avai
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Avai vs Athletic Club MG
- 28 June 2026Athletic Club MG 1–0 AvaiSerie B
- 1 November 2025Avai 2–1 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 14 July 2025Athletic Club MG 4–0 AvaiSerie B
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Avai carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.34 for Athletic Club MG. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Avai and 1.34 for Athletic Club MG. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avai rate 0.55 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Athletic Club MG rate 0.64 and 1.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Athletic Club MG, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avai the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Avai against 1.34 for Athletic Club MG. Avai's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.8 for Athletic Club MG.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Avai at home · Athletic Club MG away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avai 33, Athletic Club MG 33.
Avai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Athletic Club MG have let in 10 there.
Athletic Club MG score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Avai have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Avai
- vs Botafogo SP24 Oct · Serie Bwin 43%
- at Nautico Recife31 Oct · Serie Bwin 29%
- vs São Bernardo7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
- at America Mineiro14 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Athletic Club MG
- at Operario-PR23 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Ceara2 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Atletico Goianiense8 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
- at São Bernardo14 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.