Dinamo Tbilisi
vs
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 Spaeri
The model makes it 57% Dinamo Tbilisi, 24% draw, 19% Spaeri — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Tbilisi 2.07, Spaeri 1.01.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Dinamo Tbilisi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Tbilisi are 4th on 48 points from 28 games; Spaeri are 9th on 26 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Dinamo Tbilisi have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dinamo Batumi.
- Spaeri have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Torpedo Kutaisi.
- Last 4 meetings: Dinamo Tbilisi 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri
Dinamo Tbilisi
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 19994 October 2026
- W3-2away to Samgurali19 September 2026
- W4-0Gagra14 September 2026
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
Spaeri
- D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026
- L1-4Dila21 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 45 | 31 | +14 | 48 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Tbilisi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 25% today
Spaeri
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 95% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri
- 9 August 2026Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 7 May 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 7 March 2026Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 5 December 2024Spaeri 2–2 Dinamo TbilisiDavid Kipiani Cup
Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Spaeri
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Spaeri
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dinamo Tbilisi carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.06 for Spaeri. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.01 for Spaeri. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spaeri rate 0.49 and 2.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 24.7% chance of the title and Spaeri 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi against 1.01 for Spaeri. Dinamo Tbilisi's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.39 for Spaeri.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Tbilisi at home · Spaeri away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dinamo Tbilisi 28, Spaeri 28.
Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Spaeri have let in 8 there.
Spaeri score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Tbilisi
- at Rustavi23 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Iberia 199931 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
- at Dila8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 34%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
- at Gagra24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 49%
Spaeri
- vs Gagra23 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
- at Samgurali31 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 31%
- vs Dinamo Batumi8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 29%
- vs FC Iberia 199915 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 28%
- vs Meshakhte21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.