Erovnuli Liga predictions

10 matches ahead, from 17 October to 26 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Dinamo Tbilisi, 57% against Spaeri. 1 is marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Saturday 17 October — 2 matches

11:30 UTC Samgurali vs Meshakhte — model 50% / 26% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 3.85 · 4.17. Edge: Samgurali
15:00 UTC Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi — model 26% / 28% / 46%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.57 · 2.17. Edge: Dinamo Batumi

Sunday 18 October — 2 matches

11:00 UTC Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
13:00 UTC Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri — model 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.17 · 5.26. Edge: Dinamo Tbilisi

Monday 19 October — 1 match

15:00 UTC Dila vs FC Iberia 1999 — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Friday 23 October — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Spaeri vs Gagra — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
16:00 UTC Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi — model 37% / 31% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.23 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Saturday 24 October — 2 matches

11:00 UTC Meshakhte vs Dila — model 22% / 28% / 50%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.57 · 2.00. One-sided: Dila
15:00 UTC Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali — model 53% / 23% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.35 · 4.17. Edge: Dinamo Batumi

Monday 26 October — 1 match

15:00 UTC FC Iberia 1999 vs Torpedo Kutaisi — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

10–11 October: the model called the result of 3 of 5 matches.

Meshakhte 1–2 FC Iberia 1999 — the model said 22% / 29% / 49%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Rustavi 3–1 Dila — the model said 36% / 31% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Spaeri 3–3 Torpedo Kutaisi — the model said 28% / 26% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Samgurali 3–0 Gagra — the model said 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi — the model said 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2: result missed.