Samgurali vs Gagra Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Samgurali 3-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Samgurali, 27% draw, 31% Gagra — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Samgurali at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samgurali vs Gagra
Line-ups
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 15Gean CarlosF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
- 22G. GogiaD
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 33Isac MartinsM
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 39RyanD
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 21alexander feikrishviliM
- 25WandersonM
- 7P. BorgesD
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 9D. MujiriF
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 22G. SadghobelashviliD
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 35Alexander TimchenkoG
- 4V. ArsićD
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
Form going into Samgurali vs Gagra
Samgurali
- L2-3Dinamo Tbilisi19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
Gagra
- D1-1Meshakhte19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
What these results say
- Samgurali did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Samgurali scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Samgurali conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gagra did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gagra conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Gagra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 35 |
| 8 | Gagra | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Gagra
- 11 October 2026Samgurali 3–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 24 June 2026Gagra 0–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 2 May 2026Samgurali 2–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 2 March 2026Gagra 0–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 2 November 2025Samgurali 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 24 August 2025Gagra 2–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.